Pirates at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
PIT 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 0 SD
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew McCutchen homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — -16% Pirates
7Spencer Horwitz singles on a pop up to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Andrew McCutchen scores.5–0
7Bryan Reynolds doubles (9) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Oneil Cruz scores. Andrew McCutchen to 3rd.4–0
5Andrew McCutchen homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
4Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Adam Frazier scores.2–0
1Bryan Reynolds singles on a fly ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Oneil Cruz scores. Andrew McCutchen to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










