Mariners at Cubs
Last play · Reese McGuire grounds into a double play, third baseman Ben Williamson to shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Donovan Solano. Nico Hoerner out at 2nd. Reese McGuire out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs0%
SEA 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Cubs favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mitch Garver homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 6) — -31% Mariners
9Mitch Garver homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Cal Raleigh scores. Randy Arozarena scores.9–4
7Cal Raleigh homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Julio Rodríguez scores.6–4
6Mitch Garver homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Randy Arozarena scores.4–4
5Reese McGuire homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
4Donovan Solano singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Cal Raleigh scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd.2–3
1Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Kyle Tucker scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.1–3
1Ian Happ homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Cal Raleigh homers (28) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








