Royals at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth pops out to third baseman Maikel Garcia.
Win probability
Padres0%
KC 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 1 SD
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado scores. (inning 7) — +38% Padres
9Manny Machado homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.6–5
8Drew Waters singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. John Rave scores. Salvador Perez to 2nd.6–4
8Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Maikel Garcia scores. John Rave to 2nd.5–4
7Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado scores.4–4
6Jose Iglesias singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.4–2
5Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Trenton Brooks scores. Tyler Wade to 3rd.4–1
5Jonathan India homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Freddy Fermin scores. Nick Loftin scores.4–0
1Bobby Witt Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








