Tigers at Rays
Last play · Kerry Carpenter called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays100%
DET 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 7 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rays favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero hit by pitch. Jonathan Aranda scores. Christopher Morel to 3rd. Josh Lowe to 2nd. (inning 1) — +9% Rays
8Dillon Dingler out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Josh Lowe. Javier Báez scores.3–8
8Jahmai Jones doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kameron Misner. Wenceel Pérez scores. Javier Báez to 3rd.2–8
7Christopher Morel homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.1–8
4Junior Caminero homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
4Danny Jansen homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–6
4Jake Rogers grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Javier Báez scores.1–5
2Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Yandy Díaz scores.0–5
1Taylor Walls singles on a ground ball to center fielder Parker Meadows. Christopher Morel scores. Josh Lowe scores. José Caballero to 3rd.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








