Mariners at Cubs
Last play · Donovan Solano pops out to catcher Carson Kelly in foul territory.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SEA 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 6 – 10 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
12.5
opened 12.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Cubs favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Carson Kelly scores. Vidal Bruján scores. (inning 2) — +15% Cubs
9Cal Raleigh homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field.7–10
5Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.6–10
5Donovan Solano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 2nd.6–9
5Luke Raley singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jorge Polanco scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd.5–9
5Randy Arozarena reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Vidal Bruján. J.P. Crawford scores. Jorge Polanco to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.4–9
4Cole Young out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Luke Raley scores.3–9
4Donovan Solano singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jorge Polanco scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.2–9
3Michael Busch homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Dansby Swanson scores.1–9
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








