Royals at Padres
Last play · Nick Loftin grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
KC 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Jose Iglesias scores. Bryce Johnson scores. (inning 7) — +18% Padres
7Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Jose Iglesias scores. Bryce Johnson scores.1–5
3Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Waters. Martín Maldonado scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.1–2
3John Rave doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Drew Waters scores.1–1
2Padres challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Jake Cronenworth grounds into a force out, second baseman Jonathan India to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts out at 2nd. Jake Cronenworth to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








