Pirates at Royals
Last play · Henry Davis strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
PIT 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 7 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -145
Royals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy Pham homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Henry Davis scores. (inning 3) — -24% Pirates
9Alexander Canario singles on a line drive to second baseman Tyler Tolbert. Nick Gonzales scores.3–9
8Nick Loftin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–9
6Bobby Witt Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tommy Pham. Kyle Isbel scores.2–8
5Salvador Perez homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.2–7
4Bobby Witt Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonathan India scores.2–6
3Mark Canha grounds into a force out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. Jac Caglianone out at 2nd. Mark Canha to 1st.2–4
3Salvador Perez doubles (24) on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.2–3
3Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Pham. Jonathan India scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 2nd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








