D-backs at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado grounds into a double play, third baseman Eugenio Suárez to second baseman Blaze Alexander to first baseman Josh Naylor. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 2nd. Manny Machado out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres0%
AZ 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 1 SD
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. (inning 5) — -20% D-backs
8Manny Machado homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.6–3
8Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Corbin Carroll scores.6–2
8Corbin Carroll triples (10) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. James McCann scores.5–2
7Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, second baseman Blaze Alexander to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jose Iglesias to 3rd.4–2
5Josh Naylor homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.4–1
3Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Corbin Carroll scores.2–1
2Eugenio Suárez doubles (17) on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Josh Naylor scores.1–1
1Luis Arraez grounds into a force out, first baseman Josh Naylor to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado out at 2nd. Luis Arraez to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








