Mets at Orioles
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYM 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Orioles favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Juan Soto scores. (inning 8) — -34% Mets
10Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Francisco Lindor scores.7–6
8Pete Alonso homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Juan Soto scores.6–6
8Francisco Lindor homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Brandon Nimmo scores.4–6
7Jackson Holliday homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.2–6
6Ramón Laureano singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Gunnar Henderson scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores.2–5
6Ryan O'Hearn doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Jackson Holliday scores. Jordan Westburg scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.2–3
6Brandon Nimmo doubles (17) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Colton Cowser. Brett Baty scores.2–1
6Ronny Mauricio homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








