Rays at Tigers
Last play · José Caballero strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Tigers100%
TB 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 2 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Tigers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colt Keith homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Zach McKinstry scores. (inning 7) — +31% Tigers
7Colt Keith homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Zach McKinstry scores.2–4
5Colt Keith singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Zach McKinstry scores. Matt Vierling out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Jake Mangum to third baseman Junior Caminero to second baseman José Caballero to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim.2–2
4Spencer Torkelson homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
3Josh Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Jonathan Aranda scores.2–0
1Jonathan Aranda homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








