Cubs at Twins
Last play · Matt Shaw grounds into a double play, shortstop Carlos Correa to second baseman Brooks Lee to first baseman Ty France. Nico Hoerner out at 2nd. Matt Shaw out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins100%
CHC 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Twins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ryan Jeffers scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd. (inning 1) — +9% Twins
9Justin Turner homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–8
8Harrison Bader homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Royce Lewis scores.0–8
8Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ, deflected by shortstop Dansby Swanson. Carlos Correa scores.0–6
8Willi Castro homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–5
8Ryan Jeffers homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Byron Buxton scores.0–4
1Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ryan Jeffers scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd.0–2
1Ryan Jeffers doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Byron Buxton scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








