Pirates at Royals
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds into a force out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Jonathan India. Adam Frazier out at 2nd.
Win probability
Royals100%
PIT 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 6.9%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -200
Royals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 8) — +38% Royals
8Salvador Perez homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
6Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Loftin. Andrew McCutchen scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.3–3
6Oneil Cruz grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Salvador Perez. Tommy Pham scores. Andrew McCutchen to 3rd. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.1–3
4Jac Caglianone homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Maikel Garcia scores.0–3
2Salvador Perez homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








