Cubs at Twins
Last play · Dansby Swanson lines out to right fielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Win probability
Twins100%
CHC 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 4 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -120
Twins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, third baseman Royce Lewis to second baseman Brooks Lee. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Dansby Swanson out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st. (inning 4) — -12% Cubs
4Matt Wallner caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Reese McGuire to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Royce Lewis scores.2–4
4Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, third baseman Royce Lewis to second baseman Brooks Lee. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Dansby Swanson out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.2–3
4Dansby Swanson singles on a ground ball to shortstop Carlos Correa. Kyle Tucker scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd.1–3
2Matt Wallner homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
1Carlos Correa doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–2
1Ryan Jeffers singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Seiya Suzuki. Byron Buxton scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








