Mets at Orioles
Last play · Jeff McNeil flies out to left fielder Colton Cowser.
Win probability
Orioles100%
NYM 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 BAL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Orioles favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gunnar Henderson homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Colton Cowser scores. (inning 8) — +61% Orioles
8Ramón Laureano out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.1–3
8Gunnar Henderson homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Colton Cowser scores.1–2
5Tyrone Taylor doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Brett Baty scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








