D-backs at Padres
Last play · Josh Naylor grounds out to first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — +22% Padres
7Geraldo Perdomo doubles (20) on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Corbin Carroll scores.3–4
5Xander Bogaerts doubles (19) on a ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Gavin Sheets scores.2–4
5Manny Machado homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Jake Cronenworth grounds out to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jackson Merrill scores. Jose Iglesias to 2nd.2–2
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
3Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Alek Thomas scores.2–0
3Jose Herrera out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jake McCarthy scores. Alek Thomas to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








