Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Roman Anthony scores.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 3 BOS
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Roman Anthony scores. (inning 9) — +55% Red Sox
9Ceddanne Rafaela homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Roman Anthony scores.4–5
4Abraham Toro grounds out, second baseman José Caballero to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Trevor Story scores. Marcelo Mayer to 3rd.4–3
4Marcelo Mayer doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Wilyer Abreu scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.4–2
3Chandler Simpson walks. Taylor Walls scores. José Caballero to 3rd. Passed ball by catcher Carlos Narváez.4–1
3José Caballero reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Abraham Toro. Jonathan Aranda scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Taylor Walls to 2nd.2–1
2Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Wilyer Abreu scores. Abraham Toro to 2nd.1–1
1Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Yandy Díaz scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








