Mets at Royals
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. grounds out, pitcher Chris Devenski to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Royals0%
NYM 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 KC
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Royals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Brandon Nimmo scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 8) — -61% Mets
9Juan Soto homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.8–3
9Francisco Lindor homers (19) on a fly ball to center field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.7–3
8Mark Vientos doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tyler Tolbert. Brandon Nimmo scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores.4–3
7Bobby Witt Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Jonathan India scores.1–3
6Nick Loftin doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Salvador Perez scores.1–1
3Pete Alonso walks. Luis Torrens scores. Brandon Nimmo to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








