Pirates at Twins
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
PIT 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Twins favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach homers (13) on a line drive to right center field. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 4) — +30% Twins
4Trevor Larnach homers (13) on a line drive to right center field. Byron Buxton scores.1–2
4Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Spencer Horwitz scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








