Braves at Cardinals
Last play · Willson Contreras strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
ATL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 6 – 5 STL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pedro Pagés singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Alec Burleson scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd. (inning 3) — +19% Cardinals
3Victor Scott II singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Nolan Gorman scores. Pedro Pagés to 2nd.6–5
3Pedro Pagés singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Alec Burleson scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd.6–4
3Drake Baldwin singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Jurickson Profar scores.6–2
3Sean Murphy homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
2Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Michael Harris II scores.4–2
1Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Alec Burleson scores.3–2
1Alec Burleson doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Brendan Donovan scores.3–1
1Sean Murphy homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Austin Riley scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








