Phillies at Padres
Last play · Brandon Marsh strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
PHI 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 8) — +17% Padres
8Manny Machado homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
3Kyle Schwarber homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
2Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Jose Iglesias scores.1–3
2Elias Díaz grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper. Jackson Merrill scores. Jose Iglesias to 3rd.1–2
2Jose Iglesias doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.1–1
2Nick Castellanos homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








