Phillies at Padres
Last play · Bryce Harper grounds out to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
PHI 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 4 – 3 SD
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Max Kepler scores. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Edmundo Sosa to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Gavin Sheets. (inning 5) — -31% Phillies
7Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.4–5
6Jackson Merrill homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.4–4
5Edmundo Sosa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Max Kepler scores. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Edmundo Sosa to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Gavin Sheets.4–3
2Martín Maldonado singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Jake Cronenworth scores.2–3
2Jackson Merrill homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Gavin Sheets scores.2–2
2J.T. Realmuto doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Nick Castellanos scores.2–0
2Nick Castellanos singles on a ground ball to pitcher Yu Darvish. Alec Bohm scores. Nick Castellanos to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Yu Darvish.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








