Braves at Cardinals
Last play · Sean Murphy grounds out, third baseman Thomas Saggese to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
ATL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 3 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Cardinals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Fermín homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 6) — +31% Cardinals
7Cardinals challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Jurickson Profar reaches on a missed catch error by pitcher Gordon Graceffo, assist to first baseman Willson Contreras. Michael Harris II scores.4–5
6José Fermín homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Masyn Winn scores.3–5
5Willson Contreras doubles (22) on a fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Victor Scott II scores. Alec Burleson scores.3–3
5Matt Olson singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Michael Harris II scores. Jurickson Profar scores.3–1
3Matt Olson singles on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Alec Burleson. Nick Allen scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.1–1
2Victor Scott II singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ozzie Albies, deflected by pitcher Davis Daniel. Masyn Winn scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








