Phillies at Padres
Last play · Luis Arraez lines out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Padres0%
PHI 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 SD
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Padres favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bryce Harper scores. (inning 8) — -26% Phillies
8J.T. Realmuto doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Bryce Harper scores.2–1
6Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.1–1
1Bryson Stott reaches on a throwing error by first baseman Luis Arraez. Bryce Harper scores. Nick Castellanos to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








