Pirates at Twins
Last play · Ty France grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
Twins0%
PIT 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 1 MIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Twins favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Horwitz grounds out sharply, second baseman Brooks Lee to first baseman Ty France. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 2nd. (inning 9) — -33% Pirates
9Spencer Horwitz grounds out sharply, second baseman Brooks Lee to first baseman Ty France. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 2nd.2–1
3Byron Buxton doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tommy Pham. Harrison Bader scores.1–1
2Tommy Pham homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








