Twins at Rockies
Last play · Willi Castro strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies100%
MIN 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 5 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+2.5
Moneyline
reference-200 / +165
Rockies favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willi Castro homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Byron Buxton scores. Ryan Jeffers scores. (inning 7) — -11% Twins
7Willi Castro homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Byron Buxton scores. Ryan Jeffers scores.4–6
6Tyler Freeman hits a ground-rule double (13) on a fly ball to left-center field. Yanquiel Fernández scores. Austin Nola to 3rd.1–6
5Byron Buxton homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field.1–5
2Jordan Beck homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.0–5
1Ryan McMahon homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Jordan Beck scores.0–4
1Jordan Beck triples (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Willi Castro. Mickey Moniak scores.0–2
1Mickey Moniak doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Tyler Freeman scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








