Red Sox at Cubs
Last play · Masataka Yoshida grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
BOS 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Cubs favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 1) — +13% Cubs
8Ian Happ homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.0–6
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (26) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
7Matt Shaw homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
2Vidal Bruján out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Dansby Swanson scores.0–3
1Kyle Tucker homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
1Michael Busch homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








