Reds at Mets
Last play · Pete Alonso flies out to right fielder Jake Fraley.
Win probability
Mets0%
CIN 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 2 NYM
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Mets favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (10) on a line drive to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Mets
6Jake Fraley doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Tyler Stephenson scores. Jake Fraley to 3rd.5–2
6Tyler Stephenson grounds into a force out, third baseman Ronny Mauricio to second baseman Brett Baty. Austin Hays scores. Spencer Steer out at 2nd. Tyler Stephenson to 1st.4–2
4Jake Fraley singles on a line drive to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Austin Hays scores. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.3–2
3Matt McLain singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Noelvi Marte scores.2–2
3TJ Friedl grounds out to first baseman Pete Alonso.1–2
2Brett Baty homers (10) on a line drive to right field.0–2
1Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Lux. Brandon Nimmo scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








