Royals at Cubs
KC12–
CHC4Last play · Vidal Bruján grounds into a double play, second baseman Tyler Tolbert to shortstop Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Matt Shaw out at 2nd. Vidal Bruján out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs0%
KC 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 7 – 4 CHC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -235
Cubs favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Shaw homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Dansby Swanson scores. Justin Turner scores. (inning 2) — +26% Cubs
8Bobby Witt Jr. grounds into a force out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner. John Rave scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd. Jonathan India out at 2nd. Bobby Witt Jr. to 1st.12–4
8John Rave singles on a ground ball to center fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jac Caglianone scores. Nick Loftin to 2nd.11–4
8Salvador Perez homers (17) on a line drive to center field. Maikel Garcia scores.10–4
7John Rave homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.8–4
5Vinnie Pasquantino pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.7–4
5Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to second baseman Nico Hoerner, deflected by pitcher Ben Brown. Kyle Isbel scores. Jonathan India to 3rd.5–4
5Jonathan India doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. John Rave scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd.4–4
4Salvador Perez homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Maikel Garcia scores.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.