Padres at Marlins
Last play · Heriberto Hernández grounds into a force out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Jose Iglesias. Derek Hill out at 2nd.
Win probability
Marlins0%
SD 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 MIA
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 4) — +15% Marlins
4Kyle Stowers homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
2Martín Maldonado doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Jackson Merrill scores.2–0
2Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Xander Bogaerts scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








