Padres at Marlins
Last play · Trenton Brooks pops out to shortstop Otto Lopez.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SD 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Martín Maldonado scores. (inning 3) — -13% Padres
9Jackson Merrill doubles (13) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.3–4
8Javier Sanoja triples (3) on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Heriberto Hernández scores.1–4
6Heriberto Hernández singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Agustín Ramírez scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.1–3
3Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Martín Maldonado scores.1–2
1Kyle Stowers doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Agustín Ramírez scores. Kyle Stowers to 3rd.0–2
1Agustín Ramírez singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Otto Lopez scores. Throwing error by third baseman Manny Machado.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








