Padres at Marlins
Last play · Xander Bogaerts lines out to right fielder Jesús Sánchez.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SD 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jesús Sánchez homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores. (inning 5) — +25% Marlins
8Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Jackson Merrill scores.2–3
5Jesús Sánchez homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores.1–3
4Manny Machado singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Luis Arraez scores.1–1
1Agustín Ramírez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Xavier Edwards scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








