Royals at Cubs
Last play · Matt Shaw lines out to third baseman Adam Frazier.
Win probability
Cubs0%
KC 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 6 – 2 CHC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Cubs favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vinnie Pasquantino homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Adam Frazier scores. (inning 1) — -22% Royals
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (27) on a fly ball to right field.8–4
7Matt Shaw homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.8–3
6Tyler Tolbert homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Isbel scores.8–2
5Vinnie Pasquantino homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Maikel Garcia scores.6–2
3Carson Kelly doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder John Rave. Michael Busch scores.4–2
3Salvador Perez homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.4–1
2Reese McGuire singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Ian Happ scores.2–1
1Vinnie Pasquantino homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Adam Frazier scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








