Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Gavin Sheets strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 8 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brendan Donovan homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores. Victor Scott II scores. (inning 2) — +35% Cardinals
6Iván Herrera homers (9) on a line drive to center field.7–9
5Bryce Johnson reaches on a throwing error by first baseman Willson Contreras. Xander Bogaerts scores.7–8
5Gavin Sheets grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Willson Contreras. Jackson Merrill scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.6–8
4Iván Herrera singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Victor Scott II scores.5–8
3Manny Machado homers (19) on a line drive to center field. Luis Arraez scores.5–7
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.3–7
2Willson Contreras homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores.2–7
2Brendan Donovan homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores. Victor Scott II scores.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








