Rays at Reds
Last play · José Caballero flies out to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Reds100%
TB 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Reds favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Friedl homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Noelvi Marte scores. (inning 6) — +17% Reds
7Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to left fielder Christopher Morel. Elly De La Cruz scores. Austin Hays scores. Santiago Espinal to 2nd.2–7
6TJ Friedl homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Noelvi Marte scores.2–5
4Noelvi Marte singles on a ground ball to left fielder Christopher Morel. Gavin Lux scores. Will Benson to 2nd.2–3
4Will Benson grounds into a force out, first baseman Jonathan Aranda to shortstop Taylor Walls. Austin Hays scores. Gavin Lux to 3rd. Spencer Steer out at 2nd. Will Benson to 1st.2–2
4Taylor Walls doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Christopher Morel scores.2–1
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Chandler Simpson scores.1–1
2Tyler Stephenson homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








