Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Martín Maldonado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Arenado scores. (inning 4) — +16% Cardinals
4Masyn Winn doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Arenado scores.0–3
2Yohel Pozo grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez. Willson Contreras scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








