Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Masyn Winn grounds into a force out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Jose Iglesias. Willson Contreras out at 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SD 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 STL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Johnson singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fielding error by center fielder Victor Scott II. (inning 2) — -15% Padres
9Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Willson Contreras. Bryce Johnson scores.3–1
4Bryce Johnson singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Willson Contreras. Jake Cronenworth scores.2–1
2Jordan Walker doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Nolan Arenado scores.1–1
2Bryce Johnson singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fielding error by center fielder Victor Scott II.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








