Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Victor Scott II flies out to right fielder Bryce Johnson.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
SD 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 0 STL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado doubles (26) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez scores. Throwing error by center fielder Victor Scott II. (inning 1) — -22% Padres
8Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to second baseman Brendan Donovan, deflected by first baseman Willson Contreras. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.9–2
7Xander Bogaerts homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.8–2
6Alec Burleson homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Iván Herrera scores.7–2
4Manny Machado doubles (27) on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn, deflected by third baseman Nolan Arenado. Elias Díaz scores. Luis Arraez scores.7–0
4Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alec Burleson. Jake Cronenworth scores. Elias Díaz to 3rd. Luis Arraez to 2nd.5–0
4Elias Díaz hits a sacrifice bunt. Gavin Sheets scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd. Elias Díaz to 1st.4–0
3Jackson Merrill grounds out, second baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Willson Contreras. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.3–0
1Manny Machado doubles (26) on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez scores. Throwing error by center fielder Victor Scott II.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








