Braves at Royals
Last play · MJ Melendez flies out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Royals0%
ATL 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 2 KC
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
Royals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcell Ozuna homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 4) — -26% Braves
9Adam Frazier out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Maikel Garcia scores.10–7
9Freddy Fermin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.10–6
9Jurickson Profar singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Nick Allen scores.10–4
8Randal Grichuk homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.9–4
8Austin Riley doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Jurickson Profar scores. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.9–3
8Matt Olson doubles (26) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Nick Allen scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.6–3
7Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.5–3
7Austin Riley homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








