Mets at Padres
Last play · Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jose Iglesias scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mark Vientos hits a grand slam (7) to right field. Brandon Nimmo scores. Juan Soto scores. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 5) — -44% Mets
9Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jose Iglesias scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.6–7
9Ronny Mauricio homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.6–6
5Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jake Cronenworth scores. Bryce Johnson to 2nd.5–6
5Bryce Johnson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.5–5
5Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to first baseman Pete Alonso. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.5–4
5Luis Arraez homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.5–3
5Mark Vientos hits a grand slam (7) to right field. Brandon Nimmo scores. Juan Soto scores. Jeff McNeil scores.5–1
3Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








