Mets at Padres
Last play · Luis Torrens grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill triples (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 6) — +20% Padres
7Manny Machado homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Elias Díaz scores. Luis Arraez scores.1–7
7Elias Díaz doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jose Iglesias scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.1–4
6Jackson Merrill triples (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Luis Arraez scores.1–2
5Starling Marte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brett Baty scores.1–1
1Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








