Mets at Padres
Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds out, shortstop Jose Iglesias to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
NYM 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Padres favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Martín Maldonado scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. (inning 2) — +20% Padres
8Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.0–5
3Gavin Sheets homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores.0–4
2Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Martín Maldonado scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








