Astros at Red Sox
Last play · Roman Anthony singles on a fly ball to center fielder Chas McCormick. Wilyer Abreu scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
HOU 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 0 BOS
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Red Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Trevor Story scores. (inning 7) — +23% Red Sox
10Roman Anthony singles on a fly ball to center fielder Chas McCormick. Wilyer Abreu scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.1–2
7Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Trevor Story scores.1–1
2Christian Walker homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








