Orioles at Cubs
Last play · Tyler O'Neill flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Cubs100%
BAL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Cubs favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch grounds out to first baseman Coby Mayo. (inning 8) — +12% Cubs
2Ian Happ out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








