Astros at Red Sox
Last play · Mauricio Dubón grounds out, second baseman Romy Gonzalez to first baseman Abraham Toro.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
HOU 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -135
Red Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Rob Refsnyder scores. (inning 3) — +23% Red Sox
7Trevor Story doubles (19) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Rob Refsnyder scores.3–7
5Yainer Diaz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Carlos Correa scores. Christian Walker to 3rd. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.3–6
4Abraham Toro homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.2–6
3Trevor Story homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Rob Refsnyder scores.2–4
3Rob Refsnyder singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Romy Gonzalez scores.2–2
1Romy Gonzalez homers (8) on a line drive to center field.2–1
1Christian Walker homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Carlos Correa scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








