Cardinals at Padres
Last play · Iván Herrera grounds into a double play, third baseman Manny Machado to second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez. Victor Scott II out at 2nd. Iván Herrera out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres100%
STL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 4 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — -22% Cardinals
5Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Elias Díaz scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.1–4
5Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Alec Burleson. Jose Iglesias scores.1–2
5Jose Iglesias reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Nolan Gorman. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jose Iglesias to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Willson Contreras.1–1
5Willson Contreras homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








