Cardinals at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. flies out to right fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Win probability
Padres0%
STL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 4 SD
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+170 / -205
Padres favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pedro Pagés homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Masyn Winn scores. Nolan Gorman scores. (inning 4) — -31% Cardinals
9Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jose Iglesias scores.8–5
9Willson Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Brendan Donovan scores.8–4
9Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Victor Scott II scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Iván Herrera to 2nd.7–4
5Masyn Winn doubles (24) on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores.6–4
4Pedro Pagés homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Masyn Winn scores. Nolan Gorman scores.4–4
4Nolan Gorman singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Willson Contreras scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.1–4
3Jackson Merrill homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
2Freddy Fermin grounds out, second baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Willson Contreras. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








