Astros at Red Sox
Last play · Carlos Correa grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Abraham Toro.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
HOU 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Red Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Roman Anthony scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd. Trevor Story to 2nd. (inning 4) — +16% Red Sox
4Rob Refsnyder grounds out, second baseman Ramón Urías to first baseman Christian Walker. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–6
4Connor Wong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Abraham Toro scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.1–5
4Wilyer Abreu hits a sacrifice bunt. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Abraham Toro to 2nd. Wilyer Abreu to 1st.1–4
4Abraham Toro singles on a ground ball to pitcher Framber Valdez.1–3
4Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Romy Gonzalez scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.1–2
4Trevor Story singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Roman Anthony scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd. Trevor Story to 2nd.1–1
4Carlos Correa homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








