Cardinals at Padres
Last play · Masyn Winn lines out to pitcher Robert Suarez.
Win probability
Padres100%
STL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+170 / -205
Padres favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 4) — +22% Padres
9Lars Nootbaar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Willson Contreras scores.3–7
9Jordan Walker singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Alec Burleson scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Nolan Gorman to 2nd.2–7
9Nolan Gorman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Willson Contreras to 2nd.1–7
8Ramón Laureano homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.0–7
7Xander Bogaerts out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Jackson Merrill scores.0–6
7Jackson Merrill triples (4) on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado scores.0–5
4Jake Cronenworth homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Ramón Laureano scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








