Reds at Cubs
Last play · Willi Castro grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Cubs0%
CIN 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 2 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores. (inning 3) — +25% Cubs
7TJ Friedl singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jake Fraley scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 2nd.3–2
6Elly De La Cruz doubles (24) on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.2–2
3Dansby Swanson homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores.1–2
2Tyler Stephenson homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








