Padres at D-backs
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. flies out sharply to center fielder Alek Thomas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 5 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill doubles (15) on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Alek Thomas. Manny Machado scores. (inning 3) — -13% Padres
8Alek Thomas homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
6Jake Cronenworth singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jorge Barrosa. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd.2–5
4Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.1–5
4Corbin Carroll doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.1–4
3Tyler Locklear homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
3Jackson Merrill doubles (15) on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Alek Thomas. Manny Machado scores.1–2
2Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Blaze Alexander scores. Alek Thomas to 3rd.0–2
1Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








